作者：MyGoNews林承志
時間：2012-03-19
時間：2012-03-19
新聞摘要
- 3月北市頂級豪宅交易量能，有機會較2月成長逾兩成，不僅是連2月成長，更有機會創近2個月來新高。
【MyGoNews林承志/台北報導】壓抑許久的北市頂級豪宅市場，隨著總統選舉底定，在兩岸和平紅利的預期心理帶動下，2012年3月市況有明顯回溫跡象，根據永慶豪宅事業部統計，以到3月16號為止的買賣市況推估，3月北市頂級豪宅交易量能，有機會較2月成長逾兩成，不僅是連2月成長，更有機會創近2個月來新高，逐漸回復到去年奢侈稅上路前的市況。
根據永慶豪宅事業部統計，2012年來頂級豪宅買方評估重點，有高達53%看重「未來增值潛力」，顯見隨兩岸經貿開放加速，頂級豪宅產品長線增值潛能，已相當受到高資產人士的重視，買盤心理較兩岸經貿未開放前，著重「剛性需求」與「稀有保值性」，有了明顯的轉變。
永慶首席房產顧問葉國華表示，北市頂級豪宅市場去年受到奢侈稅上路及歐債風暴影影響，2011年8月開始量能明顯減緩，屋主高漲的惜售心態，也使得頂級豪宅市場量能遲遲無法擴張，2011年下半年交易量大約僅去年上半年前的5-6成。
不過，這樣低迷的市況，在選舉後有了明顯轉變，受到兩岸經貿開及和平紅利預期效益心理影響，3月買盤開始湧現，帶動頂級豪宅量能明顯擴張，估計交易量將可較2月成長逾2成。不過，雖然量能有復甦跡象，但葉國華提醒，3月北市頂級豪宅平均成交單價113.8萬，較2月僅微幅成長，變動並不大，目前市場買方進場追價狀況仍相當謹慎，唯有符合行情，買方購買意願才會高，有意願售屋的屋主，心態仍不宜反彈過高，避免開價曲高合寡，無人青睞。
葉國華分析，以往台灣頂級豪宅買方，購買考量點主要著重「剛性需求(自住換屋)」及彰顯地位保值性高的「稀有保值性」兩大類，不過，隨著兩岸簽訂ECFA後，不僅兩岸經貿進展加速，更開啟了台灣頂級房產的新紀元，目前台灣頂級房產正逐漸國際化，長線增值潛力大幅提升。
根據永慶豪宅事業部統計，2012年來頂級豪宅買方評估重點，有高達53%看重「未來增值潛力」，顯見隨兩岸經貿開放加速，頂級豪宅產品長線增值潛能，已相當受到高資產人士的重視，買盤心理較兩岸經貿未開放前，著重「剛性需求」與「稀有保值性」，有了明顯的轉變。
永慶首席房產顧問葉國華表示，北市頂級豪宅市場去年受到奢侈稅上路及歐債風暴影影響，2011年8月開始量能明顯減緩，屋主高漲的惜售心態，也使得頂級豪宅市場量能遲遲無法擴張，2011年下半年交易量大約僅去年上半年前的5-6成。
另外，根據永慶豪宅事業部統計，2012年以來頂級豪宅買方，購買頂級豪宅時，評估重點主要有「剛性需求(自住及換屋)」、「稀有保值性」及「未來增值潛力」等三大項，其中「未來增值潛力」佔成交比重高達53%，顯見兩岸經貿開放加速，頂級豪宅產品長線增值潛能，已是高資產人士購買頂級豪宅時的首要考量點。
葉國華分析，以往台灣頂級豪宅買方，購買考量點主要著重「剛性需求(自住換屋)」及彰顯地位保值性高的「稀有保值性」兩大類，不過，隨著兩岸簽訂ECFA後，不僅兩岸經貿進展加速，更開啟了台灣頂級房產的新紀元，目前台灣頂級房產正逐漸國際化，長線增值潛力大幅提升。
由於現階段對岸資金目前已可有條件的進入台灣市場，包台商、華僑與外資也紛紛看好台灣經濟前景，資金不斷回流，估計將可為北市頂級豪宅市場，注入一股新的成長動能。葉國華預期，在如今的後ECFA時代，台灣頂級房產發展性仍佳，雖可能不如香港與大陸簽訂CEFA後，房地產短期內普遍飆升一倍以上的情形，但後續發展仍持續看好，另外，由於目前利率仍屬低檔，在房產穩定性與長期報酬考量下，市中心中具稀有性的高總價豪宅可望持續成為高資產富裕人士資產配置的主要標的，逢回即可加以卡位布局。
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Last Tuesday the Dow Industrials popped firmly above 13,000, surpassing the peaks of mid-2011. Most remarkable is the stunning recovery of the Dow Industrials up 23.67 per cent from its 52-week low of 10,655 posted on Monday, Oct. 3, 2011.
回覆刪除Dow 13000 also means a 90 per cent retracement of the losses sustained during the great 2007-2008 financial crisis.
Quite a remarkable reward for the brave who elected to be invested, and quite a frustrating letdown for the bears who are still waiting for the double dip recession and the related test of the 2009 lows. The bears still argue that current stock prices are not sustainable because of the unresolved issues of the eurozone, the U.S. housing and employment problems and a slowing of the Chinese economy.
Now according to the financial media it appears even bullish investors are beginning to question the ability of the Dow and most of the world bourses to hold at these lofty levels. Should they listen to the bears and cash in, or should they remain fully invested?
The latest worry served up by the bears is the failure of the Dow Transportation average to “confirm” the recent new high posted by the Dow Industrial average.
The bears are referring to one of the oldest and most highly regarded technical theories better known as “Dow Theory” which is a series of principles developed by Charles Dow.
Often referred to as the godfather of technical analysis, Charles Henry Dow (Nov. 6, 1851 — Dec. 4, 1902) was an American journalist who co-founded Dow Jones & Company and The Wall Street Journal.
Dow was the creator of the Dow Transportation Average (the rails, circa 1884) and a few years later created the Dow Industrial Average. Charles Dow then built his theory on the relationship between the industrials and the rails. Today these principles for understanding and analyzing market behaviour are acknowledged to be the groundwork for modern technical analysis.
One Dow Theory principle is the averages must confirm one another. That means no important bull or bear market signal conveying a change in trend can be produced by one average alone because both Dow averages must extend above their previous secondary peak or fall below their previous secondary trough in order to confirm the onset of a new bull or bear market.
This chart should help explain Dow's confirmation test.
The upper plot is the daily closes of the Dow Industrials plotted above the closes of the Dow Transportations spanning about 100 days. The price peaks at (A) are the early February highs registered by both averages. The price peaks at (B) are the current highs registered by both averages. Clearly the recent price (B) of the upper plot is much higher than February peak at (A), while the recent price (B) of the lower plot is much lower than February peak at (A)
But in the last 100 days, the peak prices haven’t borne the Dow Theory out.
This non-confirmation or divergence between the two averages is what the bears are complaining about. They claim the Tuesday high in the Dow Industrials (the highest closing value since Dec. 31, 2007) to be a sucker rally because the Dow Transports did not “confirm” or follow the Dow to new recent highs.
As a technical analyst I need to remind the bears of a little glitch in their Dow Theory analysis.
Charles Dow did not say the two averages must confirm at the same time. In fact there can be considerable time (up to 13 weeks) separating the price action of the two averages. This time delay also serves up a major criticism of Dow Theory in that many of the buy and sell signals are late.
A prudent strategy would be to give the Dow Transports some time to rally above that February peak of about 5,500. Another prudent strategy would be to worry if both averages were to decline below their respective February lows over the next few weeks.